"Albino" Black Swan Ahead?
Amidst all the news flowing around the Japan Super Quake - and we'll get to developments on that front in a moment - I want to start this morning's discussion on a "credit, where credit is due" note.
Last Monday in this column in "What's ahead in the libretto") , my friend Gary Lammert (the Economic Fractalist) had sent us a note predicting a March 8 high in the markets plus or minus a day. Tuesday, right on call, the market rallied from an opening of 12,085 Dow to close at 12,214.38 and that high hasn't been bested since.
"OK, so what?" Hand on there pard, Lammert sent me a note Sunday afternoon that explains now that his predicted high is in, we're about to go through something which would be as rare as an "albino" black swan event - something that happens every 250 years or so, and probably equates to something on e degree larger than the South Sea Bubble popping in 1720...
So with his kind permission:
"George, my friend, what is coming is an Albino, Albino Black Swan Event, more rare by an order of magnitude than the October 1987 asset devolution. This Mutant White Black Swan will come only once every 250 years.
Both the recent devastating earthquake and the coming asset devolution macroeconomicquake are analogous brother natural events occurring in a nonlinear universe. If enough information and data were known about the linear building of stress forces on the tectonic plates, an exact and patterned prediction could occur regarding the exact timing of earthquakes. This information will be available for future generations. Unlike the information needed to predict the timing of earthquakes, the information needed to predict the historical collapse of asset prices is now available.
The summation of the macroeconomy's internal parameters - cumulative debt, asset supply, asset valuation, and job supply are integrated into the time course of its derivative asset valuations and follow very precise, very empirical, easily observable quantitative fractal time patterns, This patterns were described in 2005 in the Main Page of the Economic Fractalist and were used to exactly and prospectively predict the 11 October 2007 Wilshire nominal peak valuation.
Without going into long waves, to which you have invested a great deal of your life's time and to which you were a key contributor to the early internet longwave interest group, the Wilshire's 1982 nodal lows of 99 months forms a base fractal from 12 August 1982 to October 11, 1990 whose second fractal has a maximum of one and 1/2 month for second fractal 2,5x completion. The second fractal must end in April 2011. Similarly on a much lower fractal time scale, the May 25 2010 67/134 day:: x/2x fractal with the 2x ending on 9 March (the 134th day) vice 8 March 2011 with a nonlinear gap lower on 10 March 2011 - has only a maximum of 32 trading days left for completion.
While the timing of the ideal conclusion of the 1982's 99 month base fractal's second fractal and the 25 May 2010 67 day's (from 25 May 2010 to 27 August 2010) second fractal are exactly the same; asset valuation decay may proceed in a faster time course than the expected ideal reversal low on 25 April 2011.
By the new science of saturation macroeconomics, the ideal fractal decay low is is 9/21 of 23/18/14 days x/2.5x/2x/1.5x or on 25 April 2011.
Observe the exquisitely perfect 6/15/12//9 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x nodal low sequence that took the Wilshire 6 March 2009 first fractal 88 day nodal low to low base to the 25 May 2010 second fractal low ending on the 221st day of a 88/221 day first and second fractal (with 2 of the 221 days half trading days.) The 6 May 2010 flash crash was a third fractal part of a perfect 6/15/12/9 day x/2.5x/2x/1,5x day sequence ending on 25 may 2010.
The probability of this patterned behavior occurring by chance approaches zero ... what the hell, let's agree to call it zero.
What will be the exact fractal decay sequence to the low? Other than confirming a new patterned science for economics and macroeconomics, equivalent to physics or chemistry, it doesn't matter....
Expect the unexpected: expect the Albino Black Swan."
